Australia on Track for Third-Largest Winter Crop

Water logging, Gairdner, Albany Zone, WA

 Oats, Kondinin, Kwinana Zone, WA

Western Australia

Moisture availability

• August saw higher than average rainfall, with amounts ranging from five to 100 millimetres (mm) in the week ending 31 August.
• The outlook for September indicates a 75 per cent likelihood of receiving 10 to 50mm of rain across most southern cropping regions. If this occurs, it will contribute to maintaining sufficient subsoil moisture for crop development.
• The long-range forecast for September through November anticipates below-median rainfall, which may facilitate an earlier dry harvest.

Temperature

• August minimum temperatures were below average; several locations in the south west experienced multiple nights with temperatures below two degrees Celsius (2°C). The extent of yield losses due to frost events are still being determined.

Regional outlook

• Geraldton Zone – Crops are developing uniformly, and the region is expected to have a strong season.
• Kwinana Zone – August rainfall has supported yield potential, though there is ongoing frost risk in the eastern areas.
• Albany Zone – Consistent moisture since the beginning of the season may contribute to high crop outputs. Waterlogging in low-lying paddocks and frost risk are present challenges.
• Esperance Zone – Crop development is relatively advanced, with fertiliser applications underway to support yields.

South Australia

Moisture availability

• Rainfall distribution throughout the state has been notably uneven, with many areas experiencing below-average totals. Upper-layer soil moisture levels also remain suboptimal.
• Looking forward, the long-range forecast for September to November indicates a 75 per cent probability of 50 to 100mm of rainfall across many cropping regions. Should this precipitation occur, it would provide essential support to late-developing winter crops.

Temperature

• After a delayed start to the season and with rising temperatures forecast, the potential for yield now relies on receiving adequate and timely rainfall during spring.
• Frost remains a factor during key flowering and growth periods, which could impact yield potential.

Regional outlook

• Lower Eyre Peninsula (EP): Crop development commenced late under dry conditions but is currently exceeding initial expectations; growth progress is approximately four weeks behind schedule. Some growers project yields of up to seven tonnes per hectare for barley, six to 6.5 tonnes per hectare for wheat, and 2.5 tonnes per hectare for canola.
• Yorke Peninsula: Crop development is below the regional average; anticipated rainfall may promote further progress.
• Mallee & Upper North: Growing conditions remain poor, particularly in marginal areas experiencing very low subsoil moisture.
• Numerous growers are favouring lentil cultivation over other major crops due to its notable resilience under adverse weather conditions.

Canola, Port Lincoln, SA

Barley, Port Lincoln, SA

Rainfall for week ending 3 September

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Rainfall forecast for 4 September - 11 September

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Rainfall prediction for September

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Rainfall forecast for September - November

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology